Every 80 years or so cultures go through some sort of a crisis. People evaluate what they believe and why. This always creates major changes. We are in the crisis phase of the 80 year cycle. The crisis phase is referred to as the Fourth Turning. Lets look at events from the last few crisis phases.
1697 – William Penn starts to organize cooperation between the colonies.
1776 – Revolutionary War. Independence from England. US emerges as a Republic of Free and Independent States.
1860 – Civil War. Failed attempt at Independence of southern States from the United States. US emerges as single National State.
1940 – World War II. War of world empires. British, French, Italian, German, Russian, Japanese. Both US and Russia emerged as global superpowers.
2020 – 2030 ??
For more information about The Fourth Turning you can read the book by Strauss and Howe or blogs by those who analyze this idea.
The thing we need to talk about is the double question marks. This could end as a global government, or it could end as the breaking apart of the concept of global superpowers, or even the breaking up of the United States into free and independent States much like what happed to the Russian Empire (Soviet Union). It could end with a simple reaffirming of our current values and structure. It is impossible to predict what the major event of this crisis will be. It is impossible to predict the end result.
However, one thing that I have noticed is that the value of the US dollar had changed very little between 1792 when it was first started until 1930, devalued a little between 1930 and 1970, and devalued 99% between 1970 and 2020. That sounds bad, but the US has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II, so it is still a desirable currency around the world, and it still functions well for people in the US.
If the US dollar keeps its reserve currency status, then the US will keeps its global superpower status. If, on the other hand, the US dollar loses its reserve currency status, then both the massive spending over Covid, and US dollar holders around the world dumping them will drop the value rapidly. This will result in a crisis of confidence for the US Federal government and every state government in the US.
This means that there is some chance that we will need a ready made government to take over if the US fails. We will need a currency that can be used if the US dollar fails.
If the need arises, the void will be filled. It will either be filled with a system that focuses on putting all the power into the hands of the people, or one that focuses on putting more power into the hands of the already powerful.
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